Multi-Faceted Strategic Responses
Strategic Foresight is most powerful as an operating system, managing our processes through the lens of the future.
In a VUCA world, the most important leadership skill is the ability to effectively manage, harness and leverage the constant change around us — and this can be done through foresight. Read on and listen to this week’s episode to understand why mapping across futures takes strategic planning to the next level.
“We must be able to think in simultaneous multiples rather than traditional linear forecasts.”–The Guide to the Natural Foresight® Framework
CONE OF POSSIBILITIES
In Strategic Foresight, there are several methodologies that help us map across multiple future narratives.
The Cone of Possibilities, for example, showcases the five P’s of the future.
The cone opens outward across time. Time is inverse to certainty– as we move further into the future, we become less certain about what will unfold.
- Probable: the baseline or official future– often called the “most likely”– which actually becomes less and less likely as the planning horizon grows.
- Plausible: the set of futures we can imagine occurring from today with reasonable certainty.
- Possible: broader than plausible futures, this subset of futures would be considered potential outcomes from today’s starting point.
- Preferred: these represent an organization’s aspirations.
- Provocative: futures which, on face value, seem highly unlikely but are extremely helpful to consider in order to challenge our assumptions and biases and discover new opportunities.
As good futurists, we must be able to think in simultaneous, multiple futures rather than the traditional single, linear forecast. Being able to consider paths beyond the official future allows us to create robust and resilient strategies that will be successful no matter which future emerges.
In this episode, we strategized against the coronavirus to map three different responses: Adaptive, Resilient, and Transformative.
Download the transcription here.
Visualize the movement from today’s Wicked Problem –Alien Invasion– toward the transformational Wicked Opportunity – Alien Eyes.
The map tells a story of the data points we’ve uncovered during this month’s thought leadership, including root causes, environmental scanning, strategic responses, and future prototyping.
View the full map to envision a world impacted by Alien Eyes!